A new global study published in The Lancet has warned that more than half of all adults and a third of children worldwide will be overweight or obese by 2050 unless urgent action is taken to curb the obesity epidemic. The study, which used data from over 200 countries, paints a grim picture of what it describes as one of the most significant health challenges of the century. According to the research, the number of overweight or obese people globally has increased dramatically, from 929 million in 1990 to 2.6 billion in 2021. If current trends continue, the number of obese adults is expected to reach approximately 60% of the global population, with 3.8 billion adults falling into the overweight or obese categories by 2050. The study's lead author, Professor Emmanuela Gakidou, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, said the rapid rise in obesity is a "profound tragedy" and a "monumental societal failure." As the obesity epidemic continues to accelerate, particularly in low-income countries, experts are sounding the alarm over the increasing pressure this will place on healthcare systems. The researchers also predict a sharp increase in obesity rates among children and adolescents, with the number of obese children and teens expected to rise by 121% by 2050. Key findings from the study Obesity rates by 2050: The study predicts that 57.4% of men and 60.3% of women will be overweight or obese by 2050, marking a dramatic increase from current levels. Regional impact: The countries with the largest populations of overweight or obese people by 2050 are expected to be China, India, and the United States. The study also highlighted a significant increase in obesity in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Nigeria, where the number of obese people is projected to more than triple by 2050. Obesity among children and adolescents: Rates of obesity among children and younger teenagers have more than doubled between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, one in three young people will be obese, according to the study's projections. Despite the grim outlook, experts believe there is still time to prevent this future crisis if governments take immediate action. Dr. Jessica Kerr, co-lead author of the study from the Murdoch Children's Research Institute in Australia, stressed the importance of addressing obesity before it reaches a tipping point. “We can still prevent a complete transition to global obesity for children and adolescents if we act now,” Dr. Kerr said. “However, we need stronger political commitment to transform diets, improve physical activity, and make lasting changes to living environments.” The study identifies the Middle East, North Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean as regions that will see the highest increases in obesity by 2050. A third of all young people who are obese are expected to live in these regions. A growing health and financial challenge The global rise in obesity is expected to have far-reaching consequences not just for individuals' health but for healthcare systems as well. By 2050, researchers predict that a quarter of all obese people will be over the age of 65, creating an enormous burden on health services worldwide. In addition to the personal health challenges posed by obesity, this will also result in significant financial strain on global economies. While poor diet and sedentary lifestyles remain the key drivers of the obesity epidemic, the study acknowledges that there are still unknown factors that contribute to this rise. Researchers point to social deprivation as one possible factor, with lower-income groups showing a consistent tendency toward obesity. The study also notes that new weight-loss medications, which could significantly impact future obesity rates, were not taken into account in their projections. Urgent need for intervention The researchers are calling on governments to take urgent, multifaceted action to combat the growing obesity crisis. This includes improving access to healthy food, promoting physical activity, and creating environments that support healthy living. Without these changes, the world faces the prospect of widespread health complications, including heart disease, diabetes, and other conditions related to obesity. “The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity is a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure,” said Professor Gakidou. “We need immediate intervention to avoid a future where the health and financial costs of obesity become unbearable.”
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